Image by tiburi at pixabay.com
In March of 2020, the world changed. Drastically, unexpectedly, essentially overnight. Civilization hadn’t seen a pandemic as bad as that brought on by the “novel coronavirus” (not so novel anymore) in over a hundred years. We humans were like deer in headlights: stunned, scared, frozen.
Scientists, doctors, and governments kicked into action. Early on, experts disagreed and people started getting angry. “Two weeks” of lockdown ensued and life got even weirder. Some of us worked from home; some had to keep going to work; others lost their jobs immediately. Schools closed then reopened digitally. As the lockdown stretched past two weeks and the infection and death rate continued to rise, people wondered what good it had done to shutter our businesses and institutions. There was a lot of fear, inconvenience, loss of income, and desperation. But none of that subdued the virus.
You’ve lived all this it just like I have. That’s why expressions like social distancing, vaccine mandates, and mask requirements torture you. You’re over being told one thing today and then the opposite of it the next. As institutions like the CDC, NIH, WHO, and the Mayo Clinic urged us all to follow the science you might have wondered: which science? Whose science? Because unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past two years, you’ve probably never heard so much disagreement. Just check out this article interviewing health professionals about their own personal precautions.
Remember hearing this (and this)? Of course those links were from the beginning of the outbreak and we know much more now. But what’s more important than all the disagreement or changing decrees we’re hearing is actually what we’re not hearing. As everyone claims to “follow the science,” they remain stunningly silent about one very nagging fact. Science is stymied right now by this submicroscopic little devil they’ve dubbed SARS-CoV-2. And that’s a fact.
We’re trying, by golly, and we’re having success. But by anyone’s standards this thing is still running roughshod over our brightest minds and most prestigious institutions. We’re not really doing too much better than we did over one hundred years ago when the Spanish flu pandemic took hold and killed an estimated twenty to fifty million people worldwide. At the time, local and state governments implemented plans to serve and isolate the sick. They closed some buildings (to prevent gatherings) and converted others to makeshift hospitals. Masks and staying home were recommended then like now. And, like today, the economy sputtered and shrank. People were scared, confused, and annoyed by their perceived helplessness.
Despite all efforts, however, there was no stopping the 1918 pandemic. Not until it was ready. You can’t force an alcoholic who doesn’t want to get sober to quit drinking. And science can’t beat down viruses that haven’t completed their objectives. Those of infecting literally every suitable host organism on the planet. The 1918-1920 pandemic ended when “those that were infected either died or developed immunity.” In other words, humans did not conquer the virus; we simply waited until it got tired and weak. There was nothing else we could do.
From 1968 to 1970, another flu pandemic killed one to five million worldwide. Known as the Hong Kong flu from the city in which it originated, it spread rapidly thanks partially to soldiers returning home from the Vietnam War. After an initial wave of relatively mild illness in various countries, it returned with a vengeance for a second go round. From Brittanica.com, “Although a vaccine was developed against the virus, it became available only after the pandemic had peaked in many countries.” Great. Twentieth century viruses 2, world population 0. That virus is now considered endemic. Modern flu vaccines still contain material to fight it.
There have been other epidemics of course. Some of us remember the H1N1 flu in 2009. It killed only a smidgeon (776 in 26 different countries) compared to our current coronavirus, but it was still virulent and frightening because it was new. Harvey V. Fineburg, MD, Ph.D, explained in the New England Journal of Medicine:
“The 2009 H1N1 pandemic presented a public health emergency of uncertain scope, duration, and effect. The experience exposed strengths of the newly implemented IHR as well as a number of deficiencies and defects, including vulnerabilities in global, national, and local public health capacities; limitations of scientific knowledge; difficulties in decision making under conditions of uncertainty; complexities in international cooperation; and challenges in communication among experts, policymakers, and the public.” (Italics mine.)
Sounds remarkably similar to what’s happening today, right? Except that Fineburg mentions “limitations of scientific knowledge.” He’s right, of course: there will always be infinitely many things we don’t know. This wisdom and humility is what distinguishes him from today’s “experts.” Too many of whom are too certain of their expertise and superiority (here.) Regardless of how you feel about Dr. Anthony Fauci or any of the other doctors currently advising the government and the public, you have to admit that they’ve stepped in it a few times.
And that’s okay. Of course we continue to learn more everyday; of course we must change course as we gain knowledge. But the defensiveness of decision makers and public health officials against criticism is offensive and tiresome. They need to take their cues from Dr. Fineburg above. Some humility would go a long way.
Instead of accusing questioners of “disagreeing with science,” so-called experts could admit their vulnerabilities. Instead of calling critics names, public officials could respond with something like, “…I can understand why that’s confusing.” Or “…let me put it another way.” Even, “Yes, our advice keeps changing as we learn more. I know that’s frustrating.”
It would also be nice to hear, from anyone really, that we are still just humans. Science is not God; it’s not infallible. It is certainly one of mankind’s greatest inventions. It’s done great (and not so great) things. But it still is exactly that: an invention. Created by humans, practiced by humans, and in many ways totally screwed up by those same humans.
It’s important the world recognizes we are not equals with this viral adversary. It has challenged science and exposed it’s vulnerable, non-omniscient underbelly. Until SARS‑CoV‑2 reared its spiky little head, we humans (in the first world anyway) had been enjoying awesome progress. Medicine, technology, engineering, and space travel were booming. Most of us were pretty certain we’d never have to contend with another Spanish flu.
Although as Helen Branswell writes in her article, “How the Covid pandemic ends: Scientists look to the past to see the future,” we actually haven’t. This crisis is not caused by an influenza virus like its twentieth century predecessors. It’s a coronavirus; scientists haven’t dealt with this kind of pandemic before. It may transition in very different ways than we’ve ever seen. We may have to wait more than the typical two or three years for it to peter out. Even with vaccines and rapid testing.
So medicine and science, please admit we’re breaking new ground. And quit assuming that if everyone would just do what they’re told we could beat this thing. Even if a hundred million more people masked up every day and got vaccinated, the virus would still be with us.
Because viruses are ass kicking little beasts whose behavior is unpredictable. Lawmakers and health officials need to speak honestly and compassionately to those they serve and admit this. They need to lead by example and drop the condescending attitude that uncooperative people are what’s prolonging this crisis. Noncompliance can certainly be a problem, but it’s not the only thing driving infection rates.
We don’t know what’s going to happen next and the best scientists recognize this. As Mike Ryan, head of the WHO’s Health Emergencies Program, explained to Branswell: “We don’t know where we are, because this is the first pandemic of a SARS coronavirus. From my perspective, crystal-balling it … we’re not even close to the end of it.”
That’s the kind of talk the world needs right now. Along with some new ideas regarding containment. Shutting down or mandating masking to a country of nearly three hundred fifty million is not practical (China’s different!). Our large and hyper-globalized nation needs a better paradigm. One that doesn’t divide us into opposing camps. One we can believe in.
And let’s recognize that questioning authority and demanding transparency from governments and medical establishments doesn’t make anyone a Luddite. Good science needs skeptics, curiosity, and patience. We cannot afford to foolishly assume we know everything. That we can handle anything that comes our way. Because here we are right now, cowed by a little spec of RNA or DNA that we don’t even know is alive. Clearly we need to rethink some things.
So let’s agree: the many rabbit holes we’ve explored during this pandemic prove science is not the god we thought it was. But that’s okay. Only by acknowledging mistakes can we correct them.
That might be just be what we need to learn to truly move forward.